Odds, picks for NFL playoffs

Publish date: 2024-08-30
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Four of the first five games from NFL Wild Card Weekend have come down to the wire, and the fifth swung on a crucial turnover in the second half. The betting market is expecting another nail-biter on Monday between the favored Dallas Cowboys and the host Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

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Tom Brady is priced as a true home underdog for the first time in his postseason career, though the market has respected the G.O.A.T. enough to keep the Cowboys on this side of a key number. Can Tampa Bay become the fifth underdog to cash in this aptly named Wild Card round?

Here’s how we’re betting Monday’s contest, which kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN.

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Buccaneers vs. Cowboys odds (via BetMGM)

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys prediction

For all of the headlines surrounding the Buccaneers in what could be Tom Brady’s last game at Raymond James Stadium – or anywhere, for that matter – this game isn’t about the team with a losing record and an all-time winner under center.

It’s about the Cowboys, who looked like legitimate Super Bowl contenders before appearing downright pedestrian over the last month of the regular season. And Monday’s result will ultimately be decided by which version of this team shows up in Tampa Bay.

There’s no way around it: the Buccaneers were bad in the regular season. You can blame injuries, offseason drama, or a surprise preseason coaching change. Still, the results speak for themselves – this team was outscored by 45 points amid a 8-9 campaign, by far the worst point differential of any playoff team this year and the eighth-worst in the entire league.

Yet that doesn’t tell the entire story. Tampa Bay came alive in the final month of the season, jumping all over the Bengals early in an eventual Week 15 loss before scoring wins over the Cardinals and Panthers to clinch a playoff spot. The Buccaneers actually boasted the NFL’s ninth-best net yards per play (0.8) in that stretch before giving their starters a light tune-up in Week 18.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys have looked like a shell of themselves ever since a prime-time beatdown over the Colts in Week 13. Since then, they’ve slogged past the Texans, Eagles and Titans – none of whom featured a legitimate starting quarterback – and lost to the Jaguars and Commanders behind costly pick-sixes from Dak Prescott.

That’s been a theme over the back half of the season. Prescott tied for the NFL lead in interceptions (15) in just 12 starts, and he’s committed 12 turnovers over his last seven games, with at least one in each contest. As we saw time and time again this weekend, even one turnover can completely swing the result with margins this small.

Last week’s 20-point loss in Washington should be particularly eye-opening for those backing Dallas, which also lost to the Buccaneers by 16 points all the way back in Week 1. Teams coming off a double-digit loss in their previous game are 6-14 against the spread in the Wild Card round over the last 20 years, while teams that lost to an opponent by double digits are 11-21 ATS when favored in the playoff rematch, per the Action Network’s Evan Abrams.

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Conversely, Brady has never lost in seven career matchups with the Cowboys (4-3 ATS) and is 7-3 ATS with seven outright victories as a postseason underdog. He’s also won five of his last playoff starts (4-2 ATS), and that lone loss came after erasing a 24-point deficit in last year’s 30-27 loss to the Rams in the divisional round.

Brady nixed his retirement after that loss – at great cost to him personally – for this moment. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans finally look ready for it, too. Tampa Bay’s defense has forced three interceptions and 10 fumbles (five lost) over the last four weeks, while its much-criticized offensive line has allowed an NFL-low 22 sacks with just five in the last six weeks.

It’s all building up to Monday night against a team (and quarterback) haunted by continued postseason disappointment and trending toward the short side of the all-important turnover battle. Ultimately, it’s hard to overlook all of those variables in this 60-minute spot, even if that means holding your nose and betting the worse team on paper.

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys pick

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